Scientific publishing might create a winner’s curse

By John Timmer, Published: October 13, 2008, Ars Technica News Desk

Scientific publishing may be having some difficulty as a business model, but there are also plenty of questions regarding how well it functions from a scientific perspective. Scientifically, the function of publishing is to get accurate, reproducible information and its interpretations into the hands of the scientific community, and there has always been some debate about whether the peer review and impact factor-driven world of publishing is the optimal way to achieve it. A paper that was published in the open access journal PLoS Medicine has now examined scientific publishing using economic concepts and concluded that the way things are done now is inevitably problematic.

The paper makes what may be its most tenuous claim up front: scientific information can be treated as a commodity. It may be really difficult to put a monetary value on this commodity, but it’s clear that lots of groups—fellow scientists, policy makers, commercial entities—want access to high-quality scientific data. The publishers act as intermediaries in this process, determining what research will grace their pages and attracting “buyers” of the information in the form of subscribers.

The authors argue that this situation makes the publishers, as they try to attract the hottest research to their pages, in a position analogous to bidders at an auction, and the authors analogous to sellers. This is where the economic model comes in. Auction bidders are prone to suffering a “winner’s curse,” where the true value of an item is probably closer to an average of the bids, which means that the winner (the highest bidder) probably offered too much for it. Reality, in the authors’ view, is probably closest to the average of the relevant publications, meaning that any given publication, even one accepted by a prestigious journal, is probably off-base, either subtly or dramatically. By “winning” the right to publish it, the journal gets the winner’s curse. Read more…

To read the PLoS Medicine article, go to:

Citation: Young NS, Ioannidis JPA, Al-Ubaydli O (2008) Why Current Publication Practices May Distort Science. PLoS Med 5(10): e201 doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0050201